LET’S GET STARTED…(Jo) (Good morning, Memphis! Welcome to our internet listeners and podcast listeners across the 50 states! . You’re on Real Estate Mortgage Shoppe. I’m your host, Jo Garner, Mortgage Loan Originator. You can connect with me at www.JoGarner.com.
Our topic: PREDICTIONS FOR REAL ESTATE & MORTGAGE MARKETS WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP’S INITIATIVES 2025. Today is January 25th, 2025. Call in to the live show at 901 535-9732
Introducing Tom King, Real Estate Appraiser
(Jo) Tom King, our expert real estate appraiser, is in the studio again. Tom, you have been involved with appraising homes in Shelby, Tipton and Fayette Counties in Tennessee for over 40 years. You have seen a lot of history and keep you finger on the pulse for our Midsouth real estate market. Take a minute or so and tell our new listeners a little about yourself and what services you offer your appraisal clients. (Tom takes about a minute and a half to introduce himself and talks about the services he offer his clients)
(Jo) Today is January 25th, 2025 and earlier this week we saw a changing of the guard in the White House. The headlines have been rolling out from the media announcing President Trump’s Housing Initiatives. How will these affect you has a home buyer or a home owner?
Here are some from the headlines from the White House to your house:
HousingWire: “President Trump has made it clear that he wants to address housing challenges, including the lack of housing supply and rising prices. In an executive order signed Monday night, Trump ordered the heads of all executive departments and agencies ‘to deliver emergency price relief, consistent with applicable law, to the American people.’ In the memorandum, Trump went on to state that ‘many Americans are unable to purchase homes due to historically high prices, in part due to regulatory requirements that alone account for 25 percent of the cost of constructing a new home according to recent analysis.’”
REDFIN “He is right that the lack of supply is the root cause that is keeping home prices really high, so I feel like it is really well intentioned, but the issue is that a lot of the regulatory burden in terms of cost of construction is not actually something the federal government can deal with, as most burdens are at the local level,” Chen Zhao, the head of economics research at Redfin, said.
Weekly Real Estate NEWS article 1-20-25 Several experts from institutions such as the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Urban Institute have pointed to the administration’s plans to incentivize homebuilding as a critical factor. By reducing barriers to development—such as zoning restrictions and permitting delays—the Trump administration seeks to stimulate construction at scale. A key element of this strategy includes fostering public-private partnerships that align federal and state goals with private sector capabilities…
Interest rate adjustments will play a pivotal role in shaping the housing market’s trajectory. For example, lower interest rates could make mortgages more affordable, increasing demand for housing and incentivizing construction. However, even slight increases in rates could push many would-be buyers out of the market, exacerbating affordability challenges.
Other Headlines Some economists believe that the administration’s focus on tax reform could provide additional relief to homeowners. By increasing the standard deduction or offering targeted tax credits for mortgage interest payments, the Trump administration could enhance the financial incentives for homeownership. This approach aligns with the President’s broader goal of expanding wealth-building opportunities for middle-class Americans.”
Other forecasters warn not to expect mortgage rates to drop precipitously due to other inflationary factors in the broader policies like the tariff policies. Since mortgage rates affect home buying affordability, higher rates would play tug-of-war with the other affordability initiatives. Mortgage rates are not tied to the Federal Reserve. Mortgage rates are more closely tied to the bond market and inflation. Usually, when inflation goes up, so do mortgage rates.
Tip to the Wise Have you ever wanted to witness a rare celestial event? Your friends were posting about it online, but you waited a few minutes before going outside to see it? By the time you got outside to look up at the sky, clouds had just that minute moved across your line of sight. Oops, you missed your opportunity. Waiting for mortgage rate declines could cause you to miss the favorable opportunities available for you right now. Make your plan. Let’s work your plan. If the deal works for you today, do it today.
What are the predications for how these changes will play out? How will these initiatives affect home buyers and home sellers? We will find out later in this show. Do you want to buy a home? Do you need to refinance your home to consolidate and pay off come high interest credit cards? I can help you find the right mortgage program and make the process EASY. Connect with me today at www.JoGarner.com
(Jo) Tom King, you have your eye on the real estate market in the MidSouth. What are some predictions you have for our local real estate market in 2025? (Tom has about 2 minutes before the 9:15am break to start launching into some of his topics )
OUTRO: You’re on Real Estate Mortgage Shoppe. I’m your host, Jo Garner, Mortgage Loan Originator. What do YOU want to accomplish with YOUR mortgage? I can make the mortgage process EASY for you with the right mortgage. Connect with me at JoGarner.com When we come back, we will be hearing more from Tom King of Masters Roofing and Pat Goldstein, long time realtor with Crye-Leike Realtors will be joining us.
2nd segment 9:18 am – 9:30 am
LET’S TALK SHOP—TALK SHOPPE’S BUSINESS TIP FOR REAL ESTATE PROS:
2nd segment after 9:15 advertising break – (producer to start the song “Taking Care of Business” by Bachman Turner Overdrive –but bring the volume down on queue) It’s time to talk shop with Talk Shoppe’s Business Tip For Real Estate Professionals. Talk Shoppe is a marketing company offering free education and networking to anyone interested in real estate or in business. Talk Shoppe is made possible by the financial support of its sponsors. For more about Talk Shoppe, go to www.TalkShoppe.com (shoppe) For our Talk Shoppe Business Tip today we have Talk Shoppe sponsor Pat Goldstein, Realtor with Crye-Leike Realtors in West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Pat, I have heard some great stories from others about your expertise to find solutions and your dedication to the best customer service. What can you share with us today?
(Pat Goldstein shares her tip –about 1 minute or so)
Be careful about bottom fishing for the lowest mortgage rate. You can lose out. Cost of materials to build homes traditionally go up which can put upward pressure on the costs of new homes. Only a small percentage of the inventory of homes is new construction. Most are existing homes which are unaffected by new construction costs.
More of the aspiring buyers have concluded that the low 3 percent rates are not coming back any time soon.
(Tom commented that 6% is the new 3% )
(Jo commented that if you have paid down over 50% of the original balance, even if you have a 3% rate and you are buying a new home with a 6% rate on the new mortgage, you may be pleasantly surprised how low your payment can be. If you sell your current home and put the large amount of equity down on the new house, your new mortgage will be extremely low. Even if you are paying a higher rate, your new mortgage could be lower, keeping your new payment very affordable. Let’s do the numbers so you can compare.)
Pat Goldstein, How do we contact you if we want to buy a home or sell one? 901 606-2000
2nd segment is after 9:15 break from about 9:18Am to 9:30 AM break
TOPICS COVERED BY TOM KING, BILL KING APPRAISAL COMPANY
We are in a very stable real estate market and predictions are for the real estate market to remain stable in 2025. Over time, the new Presidential housing initiatives can likely keep home prices at a more stable level. Mortgage rates are predicted to stay stable in the 6’s in 2025.
Don’t trust the economists. They have missed the mark lately. If the real estate deal works for you today, let’s do it today. Don’t miss an opportunity to buy a home you like and afford.
Unexpected events can change the trajectory of the housing and mortgage predications with no warning.
When mortgage rates get in the low 6’s, we know from last year that many people will be jumping back into the home buying market.
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3rd SEGMENT 9:35 AM-9:45AM)
TOPICS COVERED BY JO GARNER, LICENSED MORTGAGE OFFICER
The Way We Were, Where We Are Today, Where Are We Going?
Let’s look back on the life of homebuyer Bob in the fall of 2023.
Bob got the dream job of his career but he had to move to a different city. Bob compared the housing markets to the rental markets. “Looks like home prices tend to move up over time instead of down. Same with rents.”
Bob bought a house so he could live in the house and pat himself on the back every time home prices went up. The rate he got was around 8.75% on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. His loan amount was $400,000 and his principal and interest payment was about $3,100 per month plus taxes and insurance. Rents for a comparable property would have been about the same .
In 2024, Melvin the move-up buyer, did not want to spend another year in the “too-small,” “too-close-to-a-noisy-neighbor” house. He decided to sell his house and buy a “bigger-better house.” The loan amount was $400,000 for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Melvin’s principal and interest payment was around $2,650 per month. (He is paying $442 per month LESS than Bob the homebuyer who bought in 2023)
(Peering into a possible future into 2025 or 2026 with affordable housing initiatives in place)
Nedra New Construction Home Buyer had been shopping for a newly constructed home for a couple of years, but high prices and high mortgage rates kept her sitting on the fence. She went out to look at some new homes again over the weekend and was surprised that home prices had not been ratcheting up but had actually eased down where she wanted to buy. Was she dreaming? She thought the house prices would be higher and she thought she would be borrowing around $400K. Happily, she discovered the prices for the same sized house was lower. Her loan would be about $375,000. Mortgage rates were lower too. Her principal and interest payment was now about $2,350 per month.
But wait….(glass shatters) what if Nedra did only DREAM about buying the house at such a low price with such a low interest rate.
What if this happened instead…
Nedra’s rent is about to go up again and she knows she REALLY needs to own a home. She wants a brand new, never-been-lived-in home. She goes with her realtor back to the new subdivision she had visited a year before. Her realtor explains that the costs these homes cost less to build due to some regulation and zoning changes brought about by the President’s housing initiatives. However, the cost of construction materials had gone up due to supplies coming from other countries. (Something about tariff battles ) The higher costs of these items and other policy changes had caused inflation to start going up, and now mortgage rates were not declining like everyone thought they would. “But,” says the realtor, “mortgage rates are still very affordable in the 6’s—the high 6’s.”
Nedra will need a $400,000 mortgage (even though she might have paid an even higher price for the house without the reduction in fees brought by zoning and regulation changes) Her monthly payment is going to be about $2,650 per month. Nedra can afford this payment and the down payment. Better buy now before home prices go up even more.
Economic Game of Tug-of-War
If you can imagine several people of various sizes and ages lined up to play tug-of-war with another set of equally large and small people of different ages. Each of these teams are pulling against each other on a rope.
This is what happens with cause and effect in the economic world. You have witnessed it over the years and so have I from my mortgage desk.
Most of the predictions paint a picture of intentional efforts to help make homes affordable and to improve the country’s overall economic health.
Cutting taxes can put more money in the pocket of Americans. That is one side of the tug-of-war rope. The other side of cutting taxes is putting more money in the market to chase fewer goods, which is inflationary.
Our friends in the Bond Market do not like inflation. There reaction is to hike yields on bonds which pulls the mortgage rates higher. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year bond yield and inflation.
Increasing revenue to our country by putting tariffs on their goods into our country brings more money to the US, but what if the other country’s retaliate by making their goods to us more expensive? This could raise the cost of construction materials and other goods. So, do you see the push and pull effect?
One pull to bring more money into the country and into the hands of Americans is a good thing. I hope that we see more homes being built and more selection for buyers. The short supply of homes have contributed to higher prices. With a larger supply of affordable homes coming on the market, we can expect to see homebuyers jumping off the fence and buying a home. There is a lot of pent up demand waiting for this opportunity.
Hint to the wise: Explore your options today for buying a home. If you sit around waiting for rates to drop to the bottom, you may miss your opportunity when other sides of the tug-of-war keep mortgage rates from dropping. A few forecasters have predicted mortgage rates will drop into the high 5’s but most believe they will stay stable in 2025 –around the 6’s.
4th segment following 9:45 am break about 9:48 to 9:56 am
REAL ESTATE TIP OF THE WEEK
PAT GOLDSTEIN’S TIP (1.5 MIN)
Realtors can have inside information on what builders are willing to give to buyers who are buying their new homes.
We have a stable market right now. A few years ago the home prices were spiking up and a few years prior to that, home prices were plummeting, but over time, home prices tend to go higher.
TOM KINGS TIP : Watch out for crawl spaces under the house. If you are the buyer needing an FHA mortgage or you are selling a home to someone getting an FHA mortgage, the crawl space is required to have a full 18 inch clearance from the ground to the bottom of the floor joists. If there is not an 18 inch clearance under the house, you need to make sure you can get qualified for a conventional loan or other type loan other than FHA.
Jo Garner’s mortgage tip
Big trend from the mortgage desk: People have discovered that their credit card debt has been getting bigger and interest rates have gone from around 8% to above 20% . These people are refinancing their current loan to a new bigger loan to pay off the high interest rate debt.
Call me today about your mortgage plans 901 482-0354 JoGarner.com
What do YOU want to accomplish with YOUR mortgage? I have the knowledge and experience. Let’s look at traditional mortgage products, alternative mortgage products and even combinations of products. I can help you get you what you need and make the mortgage process EASY. Jo Garner, Mortgage Loan Officer 901 482-0354 www.JoGarner.com
ANNOUNCEMENTS:
Talk Shoppe equips with education, engages by offering connection opportunities between business people and empowers businesses in a supportive community. Talk Shoppe meets every Wednesday 9A-10A CT at Independent Planning Group’s conference room 110 at Clark Tower 5100 Poplar Ave 1st floor Memphis, TN
(Thank you Manny Corless and Ben Hunter (615-601-0568) outstanding Financial Professionals at Independent Planning Group for being Talk Shoppe’s location sponsor)
Go to www.TalkShoppe.com and click the Events tab for the link to get into the event online. Talk Shoppe on January 29th 2025 9AM CT. Come join other business owners for the Mastermind Principle -based on the book “Think and Grow Rich” by Napoleon Hill
Talk Shoppe could not offer the free educational networking events free to our community without some very giving sponsors.
Thank you to Talk Shoppe sponsor Tim Flesner of Mid-South Home Helpers for being a top level sponsor of Talk Shoppe. Mid-South Home Helpers offers non-medical assistance to your loved ones who need help with daily living routines. For Home care with a heart, contact Tim Flesner at 901 414-9696.
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Real Estate Mortgage Shoppe reminds you to MAKE YOUR PLAN. LET’S WORK YOUR PLAN. IF THE DEAL WORKS FOR YOU TODAY, DO IT TODAY.
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SPECIAL NOTE: REAL ESTATE MORTGAGE SHOPPE RECOMMENDS THAT YOU CONSULT WITH A FINANCIAL, LEGAL OR OTHER CERTIFIED, LICENSED PROFESSIONAL BEFORE ACTING OR INVESTING ON ANYTHING YOU HEAR OR SEE FROM THE CONTENT ON THIS SHOW OR BLOG POSTS. THE INFORMATION WE SHARE ON REAL ESTATE MORTGAGE SHOPPE IS GENERAL IN NATURE MEANT FOR GENERAL EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. ALL EXAMPLES GIVEN FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ON REAL ESTATE MORTGAGE SHOPPE AND ARE BASED ON TRUE STORIES BUT WE USE FICTIONAL CHARACTERS AND DO NOT DIRECTLY REFLECT REAL PEOPLE OR EXACT DETAILS IN ANY OF THE SITUATIONS.
QUOTE CORNER:
Ralph Blum “ Nothing is predestined. The obstacles of your past can become the gateways that lead to new beginnings.”
“An opportunity is like a sunrise – if you wait too long to appreciate it, you’ll miss it completely.”.
REJOINDERS:
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Reverend Jo Rook Huggins, Church of the Harvest in Olive Branch, MS
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Genell Holloway of Eagle Hollow Enterprises (health benefits ) 901 653-5323
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Rob Draughon and Shelley Rothman of Griffin, Clift Everton and Maschmeyer 901 752-1133
Transitional Music: “We Bought a House” by Kat and Alex; “A Place Like That” by 6982 (MotesandJones.com); “This House” Granger Smith; “Taking Care of Business” by Bachman Turner Overdrive for the Talk Shoppe Business Tip
PICK UP YOUR COPY OF “CHOOSING THE BEST MORTGAGE-THE QUICKEST WAY TO THE LIFE YOU WANT” by: JO GARNER
An essential guide for real estate professionals and their customers.
On Amazon and Barnes and Noble
ABOUT TOM KING, APPRAISER WITH BILL KING COMPANY
Tom is a well- respected and sought after appraiser in Memphis, Tennessee. He is a second generation appraiser with 40 years of experience. He has been elected to the Memphis Area Association of Realtors Board of Directors three times.
Tom is a certified residential appraiser in Tennessee. He have appraised over 20,000 homes in his career. A graduate from the University of Tennessee with a degree in real estate, Tom is also a Certified Relocation Professional (CRP). Tom also has vast experience in dealing appraising real estate for pre-listing sales, cash buyers, divorce settlements, estate settlements. (901) 487-6989
ABOUT JO GARNER-MORTGAGE LOAN OFFICER:
www.JoGarner.com (901) 482 0354 jo@jogarner.com X @jogarner NMLS# 757308
(currently working with Everitt Financial dba Supreme Lending)
ONLINE LOAN APPLICATION : https://jogarner.supremelendingLO.com
“Whatever YOUR personal priorities are, my job is to help you get the mortgage terms that will give you bragging rights when you talk about it and help you score on hitting your goals .”
As a mortgage loan officer, my job is to help you get to the benefits you want from your financing terms. What is most important to you? I can help you find the financing terms that will help you get to what you want. What is your comfort level on a house payment? How much are you comfortable paying down,? What type of financing do you need to get the house you want to buy or refinance?
Different clients have different priorities in life—some are buying their first home with very little down payment funds. Some are recovering from medical challenges, divorces or preparing to send children to college and some are embarking on a long term goal of buying properties to build rental income.”
Jo Garner is a mortgage officer with extensive knowledge in helping her clients find the right mortgage program and making the refinance or home purchase mortgage process EASY. She offers conventional, FHA, VA or other loan programs for primary residences, second homes and investment properties.
Jo can help you look at rent vs buy, when it makes sense to refinance, how to get the best deal on your home purchase financing.
Jo Garner has been in the real estate/financing business for over 30 years. She grew up in West Tennessee and got her start in real estate in Portland, Maine where she first began her real estate career. She received her real estate education from the University of Southern Maine and was personally mentored in San Diego, California by Robert G. Allen, author of Nothing Down, Creating
*Wealth and The Challenge.
On moving back to West Tennessee in 1987, she went into business buying and selling discounted owner-financed notes secured on real estate. In 1990 Jo went to work for a residential mortgage company and has been a mortgage loan officer for over 30 years.
In addition to her work in the mortgage field, Jo Garner is the primary sponsor and founder of Talk Shoppe in Memphis. www.TalkShoppe.com Jo Garner also host the radio show Real Estate Mortgage Shoppe airing on News Radio AM 600 WREC and iHeart Radio with podcasts and show notes published on www.JoGarner.com Pick up Jo Garner’s book on Amazon or Barnes Noble “Choosing the Best Mortgage-The Quickest Way to the Life You Want”